How to deal with the winter wasteland of sports betting...

OPENING LINE

Good evening sharps! I hope you had a great week betting and overall.

In this week’s edition, I’ll walk you through how to navigate the dead period between the Super Bowl and March Madness.

Please do give your feedback at the bottom and we’ll make any necessary changes.

Best of luck this weekend!

-Anish

Announcement! Introducing Betting Strategy Sessions.

Starting in a few weeks, I’ll be streaming Betting Strategy Sessions. This WON’T just be giving out picks and parlays, but, I’ll walk you through my process on setting my strategy for the day. Why am I parlaying these two? Why did I set up the parlay in this way? How am I determining what to live bet? How did I determine how much to risk?

That’s all personal to me though. Maybe I have something going on that day, or access to certain books, and so it isn’t standard across the board (hence, why it’s not really picks). More importantly, I want to take that time to help YOU set your strategy for the day, based on your leans/edges, books, parameters, etc. It will be a more real life application of everything we’ve covered in these newsletters (control, risk, parlays, etc.)

It will be streamed on multiple platforms. Still figuring out which ones, but, definitely YouTube, and most likely X.

Stay tuned for more on that in the coming weeks!

THE STRAIGHT BET
How to deal with the winter wasteland of sports betting…

The Super Bowl was last Sunday, concluding the most active betting period of the American calendar, with a surprising Eagles rout of the Chiefs 40-22. Now, we’re in the barren winter wasteland between the Super Bowl and March Madness, which starts with the First Four in a little over a month from now.

So, what are we supposed to do? Below, I’ll give you an overview of what’s going on in the sports betting world, and how we can navigate/profit from it.

Sports Take a Break

Literally. There’s no NHL games until next Saturday. The NBA All-Star Break starts today and then there’s no games until next Wednesday. So, two major sports are taking extended breaks. However, instead of an All-Star Break, the NHL has a 4-Nations tournament that started on Wednesday. Of course, college basketball is continuing in full swing.

Betting Markets Take a Break

Over the next month, you’ll see many people within the industry, whether that’s bookmakers, sharps, journalists, and others, go on vacation. They’ve pulled long hours and grinded since August, and it’s a good time to just go to the beach and recharge before March Madness. Schools have mid-winter or spring breaks as well, so, it’s a good time to get out with the families.

Meaning, you’ll see a lot less sharp volume over the next few weeks. But, on the other hand, because bookmakers, traders, etc. are taking at points and there’s potentially less skilled replacements, you might see softer lines at points. So, there’s a give and take.

So, now, that we know what the betting markets are doing, how can we take advantage of that?

Option #1: Take a Break

You can take a break right alongside them! Get a mental recharge. Update your models. Do a post-mortem on the past football season. Learn more.

Remember, betting is long-term, and, from time-to-time, everyone needs a break, so its a good time to take one.

Option #2: Gameplan for March Madness

If your attention has mostly been on football over the past few months, now is a good time to shift into March Madness prep mode, especially with the NHL and NBA taking breaks. College hoops is in full swing and in the heart of their conference schedules, and now is a good time to have some games in the background and do some research to help prepare you for March Madness (not just betting, but your pools as well).

You don’t have to bet per say, but, start studying up!

Option #3: Bet!

This is what you probably want to do 🤣 , so let’s go through this.

As I mentioned above, sharp action should be relatively light, and the public as well, so, in general, the markets will be light. So, it’s not like we can just tail or fade the sharps or use them in any way to set our strategy. But, we can find value.

So, how do we do this?

#1: Arb Betting. Softer lines means that there might be some discrepeancies. So, look across different books for arb opportunities. Will have deeper newsletters on this, but, arbing is finding discrepancies between books (say, a favorite is -120 and one book, and an underdog is +125 at another book) to find risk-free returns. Personally, I keep this pretty small because the returns are pretty small. Good for a guaranteed $15, $20, etc. And, if you do it a bunch during the day, then you’re good. However, it is a good way to get limited at books. My

#2: Getting ahead of line movements. With the softer lines, they’re pretty volatile, so I like to get ahead of them. So, beforehand, make a decision, and then, see if the market agrees with you. So, let’s say you’re looking to bet the Under 159 on a game. And then it shifts to 158.5, I’d jump on it there. It will probably get down to 155 or so before gametime.

#3. Live Betting. I’d also look for opportunities in-game. Those lines tend to be softer. Pick a few games, and watch/track them.

#4. Bet on Cricket. It just so happens that there’s a major cricket tournament from February 19th to March 9th, the ICC Champions Trophy. It’s the 8-hour version, with matches starting at 4 AM ET, and ending at 12 PM ET, so, with #3, there will be some good live opportunities. We put together a cricket betting primer last year.

Remember, money isn’t any greener depending on the sport. And so, even though it could be a MAAC basketball game and not the Super Bowl, there’s still opportunity.

Wrap Up

Even though it’s the winter wasteland of sports for the next month, there’s a lot of opportunity if you choose to bet. If not, then, make sure to get a mental recharge, or at least study up for March Madness.

Personally, I’m going to do a combination of all the above. I usually take my vacations after March Madness, and use this time to enhance the business offerings. So, of course I announced the Strategy Sessions, but, there will be more changes (and new stuff) to everything else. Those will be announced in due time.

If you have any questions, be sure to reply to this email! Best of luck!

ON THE BOARD
This Week in Sports Betting

🏀 All weekend: College hoops regular season is in full swing. The college hoops regular season continues. There’s a few weeks before Conference Tournaments start, followed by March Madness.
🏒 All week: 4-Nations Tournament. The NHL is replacing the All-Star Game with a two-week tournament between Canada, USA, Sweden, and Finland. It’s a round robin followed by a Final between the top two teams. Canada was the pre-tournament favorite (at +145) followed by the USA (at +150). As of now, the books are rooting for one of the other two teams (Sweden at +430 or Finland at +950) to win.
🏀 Sunday: NBA All-Star Game. The NBA ASG has a different format this year. It will actually be a tournament consisting of four teams, similar to the recent NHL ASG’s. Four teams (Team Charles, Team Shaq, Team Kenny, and Team Candace) will play two semifinals with the winners advancing to a championship game. It won’t be timed, but, there will be games to 40. As of now, Team Shaq (headlined by Steph, AD, Tatum, and Durant) are the favorites at +165, followed by Chuck at +175, Kenny at +375, and Candace at +650. As of now, the books are rooting for all the underdogs, but stay tuned for our ASG coverage on X and Instagram all weekend.

KEY NUMBERS
News from around the betting world

🎰 3. The Oklahoma State Senate is advancing three bills hoping to legal sports betting in the state. Elsewhere, it’s facing more resistance in Minnesota.
🏀 5/4/2. NBA player Terry Rozier is under investigation as part of an illegal betting probe. In a game in March 2023, he posted 5 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists before abruptly leaving the game. His lines were set at about 21.5 points, 4 rebounds, and 6 assists, going well under his prop totals. The league is investigating whether he gave a bettor information on his health leading to him betting the Unders.
🎰 $2.1M. Nevada sportsbooks lost $2.1M on football in December. It was the first monthly loss by the books in 12 years, and just their 13th losing month overall.
🎰 $22.1M. But. don’t feel too bad for them. They hauled in a record $22.1M on the Super Bowl last week. Many other states set records as well.

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