Cricket Comes to the US: A Betting Primer

OPENING LINE

Good morning and Happy Memorial Day! I hope you had a great weekend betting and overall. Welcome to the inaugural edition of Set the Edge.

In this week’s edition, we’ll deep dive into betting on cricket, as a major tournament comes to American shores starting this weekend. We’ll also give you an overview of what’s going on in the sports betting world, give you some tips that will help you for the week, and cover some of the news in the industry.

As this is the first edition, please do give your feedback at the bottom and we’ll make any necessary changes.

Next week, we’ll take a look at a new approach to sports betting.

Best of luck this week!

TAKING THE POINTS
Cricket Comes to the US

In June, the US sports scene will be dominated by the NBA and Stanley Cup Finals, the US Open in golf, Copa America, but, the event that could attract the most handle is the Twenty20 Cricket World Cup. It’s going to be played in the New York, Dallas, and Miami areas, before moving to the Caribbean.

The US is actually in this tournament as well! And, we upset a decent team in Bangladesh in the warm-ups. Not once, but twice! They play the opening match against Canada on Saturday in Dallas.

Cricket is the best sport to bet on, especially live. There are so many holes and edges that the sportsbooks just can’t catch up to. We’ll go through that later, but, first, let’s get you caught up on what cricket actually is.

Cricket Primer

“You gotta know what a crumpet is to understand cricket!”-Raphael, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

Ehh, cricket is actually easy to understand. We’ll go through and compare it to baseball as it’s very similar.

First, there are three versions of the game, based on the length. One is the length of a baseball game (T20), the second is about eight hours long (ODI), and the third is five days long (Test). Luckily, this World Cup is the short game, so it won’t take too long.

In a T20 match, one team bats first and sets a score. The other team bats second, and has to beat that score. It’s not like baseball where one team bats and the second one follows for nine innings. They both bat once. A team bats for 20 overs or until all their batters are out. An over is 6 balls, so think of it as similar to being 20 at-bats in a baseball game. Two batters are out there at a time. One is the one doing the batting, and the other one is on the other side, and they run back and forth. So, both of them will get a chance to bat.

Runs are scored as follows:

• Run back and forth, each time you do, it’s a run. Like baseball, singles and doubles are most common.

• Hitting the ball out of the ground on the ground is four runs. It's ike a ground rule double, but there’s no wall.

• Hitting the ball out of the ground on the fly is six runs. Think of it being like a home run.

• Errors by the bowling (pitching) team. A wide or a no-ball (think a ball or balk in baseball) is a run.

A good score is 200. A really good score is 250, and a historical score is 300.

How do batters get out? It’s mostly about this wooden thing called a wicket. If the bowler hits it, then you’re out (think of it as a strike, but only one). Or, if you’re running back and forth and the fielder throws at it and hits it before you reach, then you’re out (like a force out). And, just like baseball, you can get caught out. But, unlike baseball, once you’re out, you’re out for the whole match. So, if you’re the equivalent of Shohei and you get out in your first ball, then you’re done batting for the match. 

That’s a basic rundown. If you have any questions or want more detail, feel free to reach out!

Twenty20 Cricket World Cup Format/Market Overview

The World Cup has twenty teams. In the first round, there are four groups of five teams, composing of…

The top two teams from each group advance to the Super 8 stage. There are two groups of four, which are already predetermined regardless of ranking…

However, if one a team finishes ahead of one of the teams listed, they just take their spot. So, if Bangladesh finishes ahead of Sri Lanka, then Group 1 would be India, Australia, New Zealand, and Bangladesh. The books would be rooting for chalk in terms of who advances, but would be pulling for an upset or two along the way.

From there, we move into a knockout Semifinals and Final, which are not predetermined. That’s based on actual group ranking.

There’s 2-3 matches per day. Most of them are at 10:30 AM ET to optimize for the Asian and Australian markets, but some are in the evening as well.

India is the favorite at +300, followed by Australia at +400, and England at +500. They’re also the top three teams in the world right now. England are the defending champs. Australia are the defending champs in the other two formats (Test and ODI), and are looking to become the first team to hold all three titles concurrently. India are the most popular team, and will be getting heavy support, but, they’re known as underachievers. They’re always favored but never win. Other top teams are South Africa, New Zealand, the co-host West Indies, and Pakistan. The sharps are on England. The books are rooting against India, the West Indies, and most of those long-shots, but that might change as the tournament moves on.

The Coin Toss

The pregame coin toss in cricket is more important than in any other sport. Odds literally move quite a bit based on who won or who lost. The coin toss happens about half an hour before the game.  

In cricket, the team who wins the coin toss decides whether to field or bat first. It might seem like a simple decision, right? I want to field first so I know what score to beat? Well, not really. A lot goes into the decision.

Conditions change throughout a match. Some conditions might be better if you’re a power team, or power bowling team (think throwing a bunch of fastballs like the 90’s Braves). Or, if you’re a spin bowling team (think throwing a bunch of change-ups, sliders, and curveballs). Depending on the conditions, it might be better to bat first or second.

So, why does this matter from a betting perspective? I mentioned odds literally change based off of it. An underdog can go from +130 to +140 or +150 if they lose the toss. We usually would NOT make any pregame bets before the toss, unless there’s really decisive market action

TIP: Watch the interviews right after the toss. Let’s say a captain decides to field first. They’ll ask the other captain what they would’ve done right after the toss. If he said he would’ve also fielded, it means that team is now at a disadvantage, so there might be value in betting the other team.  

However, the true value is in live betting.

Live Betting Totals

Cricket doesn’t have game over/unders. Or spreads. That’s because the score is dependent on who bats first and who wins. Let’s say you have a really good team like India, playing a bad team likeCanada. If India bats first, they might post a score of 275. Canada might only get 100. However, if Canada bats first, then they’d post a score of 100, but all India needs is 101. They’ll never get to 275. And so, most cricket betting is on the moneyline, except live betting which has many more options.

One of those options is team totals. In that example I mentioned, you can bet over/under on India’s score. Over 250? Under 250, etc. Like in American sports, that number will change. However, honestly, the books have really bad models.

There’s two approaches we like to take in T20. The first is following the line movement at the sharp books, especially the BetFair Exchange. Note that you might need to access it via VPN. I’d like to see how it’s tracking compared to some of the non-sharp books, like Bovada, DraftKings, FanDuel, etc. If it’s tracking up, then we’ll take an over at a trailing book. If it’s tracking down, then vice-versa.

The second approach is to compare it to the models. For an extensive overview on that, check out the article we put together for last fall’s World Cup.

Live Betting the Winner

In addition to using Cricket.com for live betting the winner as well, we’ll take the BetFair (or other sharp books) #’s into account as well. If the winning percentage deviates by more than 10% from the odds, I’ll take that team. I’ll also look for trends. Let’s say one team’s percentage is slowly and consistently increasing, then I’ll take them. But if I’m already on a side, I’ll take the other side if that first team’s percentage is decreasing in order to hedge a little bit. Ideally, you can get both sides at plus-money, or get on the winning side at the best odds.

Live Betting Player Scores/Partnerships

This is where it gets pretty fun because the books suck at this. Just like in all American sports, you can bet on an over/under on a player’s score. For the really good players, it might be 40. For the bad ones, maybe 15-20.

You shouldn’t Martingdale typically, but, in cricket it works on Unders. So, if I lose a bet, I’ll double it the next time. But only once. Here’s what I mean.

Let’s say pregame, a players total is 40. Well, for every run they score, it goes up by 1. So, if he scores 5 runs, then the live total is now 45. And so, if he gets to 40 and the new live total is 80, I’ll take another Under bet. Remember, a player can get out at any time! Even the best players get out for 0 runs, or 10 runs. 40 might be close to their median, but 80 might be one of their best performances ever. And so, if I lose, I’ll be okay with losing on one of the best performances ever. It’s like betting an Under on Steph Curry to score 25 points, and then when he reaches it, you bet an Under on him to score 50.

You can bet the same thing on partnerships. Remember how two batters are out there at the same time? That’s a partnership. As soon as one of them is out, the partnership is over, and so you can use the same strategy on partnerships.

That means, at any one time, you might have three bets going on simultaneously. One on each player, and another on the partnership.

This is where you can really rack up a bunch of wins quickly. I’m talking like 27-5 in a single match. Let’s take the South Africa-West Indies match from yesterday.

For each batter, take a look at the R column. For most of them, even the South Africans who scored a respectable 163, they would’ve hit their second Under at least, exceptfor Rassie van der Dussen. So, that’s 17-1 right there. Then, see the “Fall of wickets.” The number after the dash is the runs scored when the partnership ended. So, South Africa’s first partnership was 9 runs. The second one was 34 (43-9), etc. Those would’ve gone 6-1. So, that’s 23-2 on just one half of the game. So, that’s where you can really make a lot of $$ in live betting. However, get a feel for the game, and don’t triple up. Just take the L’s if needed. Sometimes, teams just do very well. Sometimes, you will go 5-5, but don’t chase. Don’t put yourself in a situation where you go like 6-15 and keep your unit size small. Also, know that in T20 it moves very quick, so you really need to be dialed in for that time. Might be a good lunch break activity, but, don’t try it out on every match. You need to give your mind a break!

Advanced Analysis

If you really want to get advanced, run some analyses on each player and team’s partnerships, using Statguru.

Maybe a player gets out early a lot, but if he gets through 20 runs or 5 overs, maybe he stays out there for awhile? So an over bet might be good? Maybe you want to look at other player props as well. StatGuru is great to run some basic analyses. Do know that sometimes your feel gets to be accurate, that you’re about to place a bet, and then what you thought would’ve happens then happens before you placed your bet in. That’s the worst!

Wrap Up

Many of you bet on the World Cup last fall and did fairly well, so we’re excited for this upcoming month now that its during more reasonable hours (for Americans). Do keep us posted on your progress and reach out with any questions.

If you want to learn more about underground betting in cricket, do watch “Caught Out” on Netflix.

Also, with the game coming stateside, make sure to try to get to a few of the matches if you’re in the NYC, Dallas, or Miami areas!

I hope you have a great tournament and are able to fit it in with all the other sports this months. Who knows? It might end up being your most profitable 😉.

We’ll be posting content all tournament on our sister accounts on Twitter/X and Instagram @BETTRCricket, so be sure to follow us there!

Best of luck!

ON THE BOARD
This Week in Sports Betting

🏀 🏒 All week: Conference Finals Continue. The Conference Finals continue in the NBA and NHL. In the NBA, the Celtics and Mavericks have jumped out to massive 3-0 leads and can close out their series as early as today and tomorrow respectively. The books would like them to close it out, but, maybe not so fast in order to attract some additional handle over the week. In the NHL, the Oilers are -115 and the Rangers are -150 to win their conferences. In the West, the public should continue to ride the Stars. The books are would be rooting for the Oilers. In the East, we’d expect the public to continue to ride the Rangers. The books are rooting for the Panthers to pull the upset. The marquee potential Stanley Cup Finals series (i.e. attracting the most handle) would be Oilers-Rangers.
⚾️ All week: Regular season is in full swing. The MLB regular season is continuing. We wrap up the week with a Cardinals-Phillies series. The books should end up rooting for the Cardinals there.
⚽️ Saturday: UEFA Champions League Final. Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund face off to conclude the UEFA Champions League at Wembley. Real Madrid is favored, and the books also should also be rooting for them to lift the cup. As in all big soccer matches, they’ll be rooting for the 90-minute Draw and the Under. The sharps are on Real Madrid as well.
🎾All week: French Open. The French Open is in full swing with the opening rounds. The books will be rooting for the big names (Djokovic, Medvedev, Sabalenka, Gauff, etc.) to stick around in order to attract handle.

TAKING THE POINTS
3 Quick Tips to help you find your Edge

• Make sure to remember to shop around between books for the best line, especially during the NBA/NHL playoffs.

• If you’re looking to bet a few games in a day that are chronogically one after the other, look to bet the first half or first five so that you can quickly push forward that bankroll into your future bets.

• If you place a same-game parlay, make sure that they correlate to how you think the game is going to go. They all need to make sense with eachother.

KEY NUMBERS
News from around the betting world

🏏 100-1. When they were 1-7, Royal Challengers Bangalore were 100-1 to make the IPL Playoffs. They accomplished that after winning six straight matches. They were as low as 695-1 to win the title. However, they fell short in the Eliminator. The Kolkata Knight Riders, who opened up with the sixth highest odds (of ten), won the title with a decisive victory over Sunrisers Hyderabad last night.
🇺🇸 -150. Donald Trump has opened up a lead on Joe Biden (+145) in the past week in the race for the Presidency. Trump is being offered at the highest odds he’s ever been in this cycle.
 🏀 $98,750. This Caesars’ bettor is now one Mavericks win away from cashing in a $98,750 parlay.
⚽️ 5. Lucas Paqueta of West Ham has been charged with breaching the FA’s betting regulations by trying to intentionally receive yellow cards to profit from betting in the 2022-23 season. He did only receive five yellow cards that year.
🎰$10M. Circa Sports upped their NFL Survivor Contest payout to $10M. Sign-ups began on Friday and are open until September 8th.

TRIVIA

Detailed answer will be in next week’s edition!

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