Euro 2024 Overview/Futures Report

THE STRAIGHT BET
Euro 2024 Overview/Futures Report

This summer’s biggest soccer tournament starts today with the opener between the hosts Germany and Scotland at 3 PM ET. It’s often said to be more competitive than the World Cup, with only high quality European sides. In Euro 2020, Italy beat England on penalty kicks in the Final. For more on that and the events surrounding it, do check out The Final: Attack on Wembley on Netflix!

Below, we’ll give you a brief overview of the competition, along with who the professionals (sharps) are betting and who the liabilities are for the sportsbooks. Earlier this week, we gave a general overview of how to approach betting soccer. We’ll have up to the minute content all over our Twitter and Instagram all tournament.

⚽️ Competition Overview

There are 24 European nations competing in the tournament. They are divided into six groups of four. Each teams plays three games in this stage, one against each other team. You get three points for a win, one for a draw, and none for a loss. 16 teams then advance to the knockout stage, which has a traditional Round of 16, Quarterfinals, etc.

The groups are below.

If you’re unfamiliar with this tournament style, you might ask how can you go from 24 teams to 16? The top two teams in each group go through regardless. After that, the four best third place teams go through ranked by their points (and then other tiebreakers).

The round of 16 matchups would be:

1B vs. A3/D3/E3/F3
1A vs. 2C
1F vs. A3/B3/C3
2D vs. 2E
1E vs. A3/B3/C3/D3
D1 vs. F2
C1 vs. D3/E3/F3
2A vs. 2B

Then the first two winners play eachother in the quarterfinals, etc. The placements of the third place teams will be determined once those four are finalized.

This is where the knockout stages can get pretty quirky. A team like Croatia (projected to be B3) might play Belgium (1E) or Portugal (1F). Or they might finish second and play someone like Switzerland (2A). Once it doesn’t go to chalk in the group stage, you might see the halves of the bracket become very imbalanced. England had a breezy run to the Final in 2020 and Portugal did in 2016, but their opponents (Italy and France respectively) had to run the gauntlet.

The Favorites

The favorites are: defending runner-up England +395, defending World Cup runner-up France +400, hosts Germany +474, 2016 champs Portugal +626, powerhouse Spain +802, defending champs Italy +1602, and perennial contenders Netherlands +1802 and Belgium +2006.

However, the Euros are known to have some upset winners, such as Denmark in 1992 and Greece in 2004. That Greek squad was 150-1 before the tournament. In this tournament, a team like Serbia is 100-1, and the Czech Republic is 200-1. But, the task is more difficult nowadays as the tournament has expanded.

🔪 The Professional Bettors

The professional bettors (sharps) are betting on:
🇭🇷 Croatia +3506
🇩🇪 Germany +474
🇮🇹 Italy +1602
🇳🇱 Netherlands +1802
🇵🇹 Portugal +626

If all goes chalk, all five of these teams could potentially make the quarterfinals. And then, you could potentially have an all-sharp semifinal. But, I suspect it won’t go chalk, so you might find yourself with an overloaded bracket on one side.

🎰 The Sportsbook Liabilities

The main liability for the sportsbooks are:
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England +395

Other borderline liabilities are Germany, Portugal, and France, Serbia and Austria. These five can definitely change as the tournament goes on, but England will be one throughout.

So, given that France and Austria are in the same group, the books would love for the Netherlands and/or Poland to advance. Because Serbia and England are in the same group, they’d love for Denmark and/or Slovenia to advance. That will increase the chances that one of those liabilities are eliminated in the first round.

But remember, with liabilities, it just means they don’t want them to win the title. So, if they lose in the Final that’s fine. In fact, a deep run by England without them winning the Final might be preferable to keep that huge market engaged.

Wrap Up

As mentioned earlier, the Euros are considered to be more competitive than the World Cup, so it should be a fun tournament throughout. I hope you find this report helpful along with the betting strategies. Best of luck!

FEEDBACK