Soccer Betting Primer

OPENING LINE

Good morning sharps! I hope you had a great weekend betting and overall.

In this week’s edition, we’ll give you a primer on soccer betting with the Euros and Copa America starting over the next few weeks. We’ll also give you an overview of what’s going on in the sports betting world, give you some tips that will help you for the week, and cover some of the news in the industry.

Please do give your feedback at the bottom and we’ll make any necessary changes.

Best of luck this week!

THE STRAIGHT BET
Soccer Betting Primer

It’s summertime, which means we get a major soccer tournament to keep us bettors busy. But this year we get two! The Euros starting on June 14th, and Copa America starting on June 20th. Full-day’s worth of matches!

Below, we’re going to walk through what the overall betting markets are usually looking for, and two live betting approaches. This won’t have actual market information for individual tournaments yet, as money is still coming in. If there is actionable information, we’ll send those out as a special edition of the newsletter later this week and next week.

📈 The Betting Markets

These games will be the most bet games of the year globally. If the public is on a side, the opposite will be a global Need. But, without looking at any specific games, here’s what the books usually root for.

DRAW. Soccer betting is typically three-way. You have Team A, Team B, and the Draw. Bettors typically pick either Team A or Team B, and never the Draw. Oftentimes, you might have 90-95% of the handle on either team. Therefore, a Draw cleans everything up.

UNDER. Like most sports, casual public bettors want high scoring games. 3-2 is more fun than 1-0. Therefore, they’ll typically bet the Over. And, therefore the books would be rooting for the Under. The usual exception is if there’s a highly defensive team playing.

UNDERDOG (with exception). If they can’t get the Draw, the books would usually be rooting for the Underdog. However, if the favorites are long (like -500 or more), they’ll be rooting for the Favorite if they can’t get the Draw.

Those are the main markets. However, most betting in soccer is actually done as part of an accumulator or acca. It’s the equivalent of a parlay. In addition to the above, there’s a few more that the books are rooting for to kill those.

No BTTS (Both Teams To Score). Typically, bettors put in a BTTS (both teams to score) bet as part of their accumulator. So, if it’s 3-1, that means both teams scored and it cashes. So, if there’s a shutout like in the UEFA Champions League Final, that’s very beneficial.

(Popular player) to Not Score. Bettors usually add in a leg for the popular player on the team (like Messi, Ronaldo, Vinicius, etc.) to score. So, if they don’t score, that’s beneficial to the books.

So, if the books get one of those five, they’ll be in good shape. Don’t just blindly pick those in each match, but, have your betting portfolio trend in that direction.

🚨REMINDER: Most bets are graded after the regulation 90 minutes (plus injury time), even in the knockouts. Therefore, anything that happens in extra time isn’t counted. For example, if it ends 0-0 in regulation and 2-1 with Ronaldo scoring after extra time, it’s graded as the Draw, No BTTS, Ronaldo not scoring, and the Under 2.5.  

The Asian Impact. Asia is the largest betting market in the world, estimated at $1 Trillion (with a T!) annually. It’s the most influential. In soccer betting, you’ll see something called an Asian handicap. That’s just the equivalent to our spread. The Asian markets typically bet that instead of the moneyline. Therefore, in matches during the Asian daytime (8 PM ET to 12 PM ET), which would typically be the first one or two Euro matches and the last Copa America match, the Asian public is usually all over the favorite on the Asian handicap. The books would typically be rooting for the underdog there. The sharps are typically on the underdog as well.

NOTE on Asian Handicaps: You might see an Asian handicap listed as “-0.5, -1”, or even “-0.75.” They both mean the same thing. Your first impression might be “what the heck? If my team wins 1-0, they cover. It’s no different from -0.5!” In Asian handicaps, they actually split your bet. If you bet $100, then $50 is on -0.5, and $50 is on -1. If a team wins 1-0, you push on $50, and win $50. If they draw or lose then you lose. If they win by 2 goals or more then you win your full bet. Keep that in mind.

Exact Scores. After all of the above, and limited scoring options in soccer, we can derive some Exact Score possibilities. The most optimal score is always 0-0. They get the Draw, Under, No BTTS, and no player scoring. After that, its 1-1. Sure BTTS cashes, but they get the Draw and Under. After that, it’s typically 1-0 or 2-0 on either side. So, you might consider placing those bets. For example, in the Euro 2020 Final, we played exact score 0-0 +1700 and 1-1 +500 bets. The 1-1 cashed.

Betting Market Wrap Up

Remember to keep your bets trending more towards what the books are looking for. Of course, if there are exceptions, we’ll post on social media. The professional bettors are usually on the Underdog, Draw, and/or Under. Also, remember to incorporate exact score bets into your betting.

Now that we covered the betting markets to help with your pregame betting, let’s dive into live betting.

🕛️ Live Betting

There’s two main approaches to live betting that we follow. One is the target approach, and the other one is the xG(oT) approach.

Live Targets. This is quite simple. If the live line hits a target, then we take it. The target tables are below.

Moneyline

Asian Handicap

Total

You’d want to add those numbers above to the pregame lines. For example, let’s say you’re looking to bet an Under 2.5 that the sharps were on. If you’re aggressive, your target would be 2.5+1 or 3.5. If you were passive you’d bet 2.5+2 or 4.5. So, just wait until the live line hits the target (if it does) and take it. However, don’t bet after the 75th minute. It gets volatile after that, or they lock markets.

xG(oT) Approach. xG is expected goals, and xGoT is expected goals on target. Expected goals are the number of goals a team/player is expected to score based on a shot. It’s based on a bunch of variables, such as the location of the shooter, type of pass, attack, etc. So, if you have an xG of 0.1. It means 1 out of 10 shots from that spot would result in a goal. It is a preshot model, whereas xGoT is a post-shot model. That only looks at shots on target, and is based on a combination of shot and execution quality. So, for example, in that shot with an xG of 0.1, if he puts it in the corner it might have an XGoT of 0.7. The best website/app to track both real-time is FotMob.

I like to use both in combination. Sometimes xG is flawed. If you have 20 half chances at 0.1, your xG might be 2, but your xGoT might be 0.5 while you scored 0 goals. One strategy I like to use is if a team has +1 or more xGoT than their actual goals, and the xGoT is higher than the xG, then I’d place a bet. Most likely on them to score the next goal, but, you could use it for the Asian handicap, or even a result. For example, lets say Team A is tied 0-0 but they’re getting a bunch of quality chances and their xGoT is 1.5, and their xG is 1.3, but Team B’s is around 0.2 or 0.3 respectively, then I might place a bet on Team A to win.

Wrap Up

Soccer is the global game and will be getting a lot of attention world-wide over the next few months. Be sure to join in! But, keep it to what is managable for you. Start off with beer money, and then progress from there.

If you have any questions, be sure to reply to this email! Best of luck!

ON THE BOARD
This Week in Sports Betting

🏀 Wednesday/Friday: NBA Finals continue. The long-drawn NBA Finals between the Celtics and Mavericks continue with just two games this week. It might not continue past that with the Celtics up 2-0. They’re up to -900. The books would still want the Celtics to win the series. In terms of the games, lets see if the public shifts to the Celtics after they’ve been burned by the Mavericks twice.
🏒 Today/Thursday/Saturday: Stanley Cup Finals contiue. The Stanley Cup Finals between continue all week. The Panthers, up 1-0, are -250 favorites. The books would still want them to win the series, and potentially each individual game. However, sharps are still on the Oilers to win the title.
⚾️ All week: Regular season is in full swing. The MLB regular season is continuing. We wrap up the week with a Yankees-Red Sox series. The books should end up rooting for the Red Sox.
🏌️‍♂️ Thursday-Sunday: US Open. The US Open is this weekend at Pinehurst. Masters and Memorial winner Scottie Scheffler is the favorite at +300. In theory, the books should be rooting against him, but the odds might be short enough to reduce liability. Let’s see. They will be rooting against Tiger as always.

TAKING THE POINTS
3 Quick Tips to help you find your Edge

• When betting baseball, understand why you’re betting on a side. If the starting pitching is the majority of your reasoning, then make sure to look at the First 5 markets.

• With the French Open having just ended, look ahead to Wimbledon now. You could get a good price for a player who is in good form.

• When betting player props, see if outlier performances impact the line next time out. For example, if Aaron Judge strikes out 5 times in a game that might raise his strikeout prop next game. The public would be betting the over as well. Might be a good under opportunity.

KEY NUMBERS
News from around the betting world

🇺🇸 56%. Donald Trump’s odds have upped to 56% on Polymarket. This is the highest he’s been trading all all year. Elsewhere around the world, Keir Starmer (96%) should oust Rishi Sunak as the British PM. There is a 2% chance of a nuclear bomb going off by the end of the month. That’s down from 5%. But, it is trading higher than Lebron retiring before July.
 ⚾️ $4.3% Tucupita Marcano received a lifetime ban for betting on baseball. He bet on his own team (the Pirates) while recovering from surgery last year. He only won 4.3% of his bets.
🏏+800. Despite being +800 to win (+600 on the US books), the US National Cricket Team upset Pakistan at the T20 Cricket World Cup. It is being hailed as one of the largest upsets in cricket history, and odds-wise, was bigger than the “Miracle on Ice.” Most of the US players are part-time, with engineering day jobs, whereas the Pakistani players are full-time professionals.
👮 $22.7M. In a throwback to the Sopranos days, 17 members of the Gambino crime family were arrested in Staten Island for running an illicit gambling enterprise that raked in $22.7M in illegal bets.

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