Unit Sizing Based on Emotion

OPENING LINE

Good morning! I hope you had a great weekend betting and overall.

In this week’s edition, we’ll deep dive into unit sizing based on emotion. We’ll also give you an overview of what’s going on in the sports betting world, give you some tips that will help you for the week, and cover some of the news in the industry.

Please do give your feedback at the bottom and we’ll make any necessary changes. Based on your feedback already, over the next few weeks, we’ll be adding things like a clickable Table of Contents and a Referral Program.

Next week, with the Euros starting on June 14th and Copa America on June 20th, we’ll dive into betting soccer.

Best of luck this week!

THE STRAIGHT BET
Unit Sizing based on Emotion

If you’re freaking out over a bet, you’re betting too much. If you’re celebrating a win, you’re betting too much. Plain and simple. Let me explain.

Theoretically, your bankroll should be how much you’re willing to lose in a year that you can absorb financially. For some, that might be 5% of a $100K salary or $5,000. For others, it only might be $1,000.

The mathematical way of figuring out a unit is that it should be 1% of your bankroll. Therefore, if your bankroll is $10,000, a unit should be $10. Then, you can adjust it every month as it goes up or down. If it goes down to $9,000, then your unit is $90, and if it goes up to $12,000, your unit is $120. Then typically, you’d bet 1U (one unit) on average. However, in practice, most people disregard all of this, and have 20U max plays 5 times a week.

However, all the time, I see bettors saying they bet a unit and then freaking out over it. That should never be the case. It should be pretty blaise. Below is a unit-to-emotion equivalency. Copy this down. Put it in the notes on your phone, or whatever.

100 Units= I can’t bet anymore…this time I am done. I have no $$ left.
25 Units= I can’t do this anymore, but, I will.
5 Units= Shit, that hurt a little bit.
2 Units=That stings! But, no big deal.
1 Unit= Oh well…on to the next one.
0.50 Units= Oh shucks! But, this was fun and I got some action.
0.25 Units= I lose this much at a bar on a Friday night.

So, if you say you bet a unit but you’re in the “I can’t do this anymore, but I will” or are sweating a bet, then, you really bet 25U. It should be fully emotionless! Also, those unit size emotions aren’t just for single bets, but, also for an overall performance. So, if you lose 2U in a day, you should be in the “That stings! But no big deal” mode.

This differs for everyone, and in different situations. It also takes time to get numb to it. For some, it might be $100. For others, it might be $5. You’ll know whats right for you as soon as you make a bet that you’re not financially sweating. It also means that you’re not getting excited over a win/profit. That’s boring, so in a bit I’ll go into how to have fun with it. It also depends on how much “control” you have. Are you just making a pregame bet and not touching it? Or are you live betting and going in and out of your position? For me, my unit size/approach is pretty complex as the betting markets/offerings have increased in complexity. I’ll vary based on jurisdiction, approach (pregame or live betting), betting platform, or even whether I’m using an exchange or not. Will deep dive into that in a different newsletter. But, bottom line, I keep it to an amount where it’s completely emotionless.

⚡️”I need to pay for electricity”

Unfortunately, lots of people go into financial ruin because of sports betting, and I really want to make sure you are not one of them. All over social media, especially at the end of the month, I see people posting that they need to hit this parlay in order to pay rent. Or, they’re making $100 bets and they work a job making $40K/year. That is financially irresponsible.

When I was betting in Sri Lanka (will cover that in a different newsletter later!), I met a man who helped me figure out the ropes of the process at a betting house. Stupidly, I gave him my number. For the rest of the night, I kept getting voice messages saying “I lost. Sir, can you please support me. My children need to go to school in the morning.” or “My electricity has been cut. I lost. I need to pay for electricity.” Actually, those calls/texts went on for weeks before I finally blocked him. He was probably in the 25U-50U emotion equivalent. Do not be that person.  

🍺BEER Money

I have two bankrolls. One is the true bankroll which I treat like an investment account and try to grow. The second one is my secondary “beer” money account. That’s the one I use where I just want something on the game and want to ride the emotions. Maybe I’m attending the game? Maybe I’m running a test? Maybe I’m at a casino and just want to some action? Maybe I just want to have fun with friends? That’s where the beer money account comes in, and all the rules get thrown away. -EV parlays, etc.

My beer unit is usually $20, $50, $100 (it depends on the day). But, it is purely recreational. And, more importantly, it is one that if I lose it all, I don’t think twice about it. If you find yourself betting more recreationally, have that type of approach.

💵 The $5 Bet

I know some of you are saying, “But BETTR, the only amount I’m emotionless about losing is $5, but that’s no fun! And, everyone will think I’m cheap!”

Guess what? When I started, my unit size was $3-$5. Oh, I got so much shit from friends who were betting $100 or $200. But, guess what? I was up $40-$50 at the end of the week, and they were down a few hundred. But over time, I let my unit size grow with my bankroll and earning power. While, some of those friends are in financial trouble. So, remember, it’s all about you. Don’t worry about what anyone else says. And, even from me. There’s no unit shaming here, and I’ll defend you on that as well.

Wrap Up

Sustained financial growth is boring. On a day-to-day basis, it kinda sucks 😆 . And, if you’re using betting in that way, it will be as well. We all want that big payout or ride GME to the moon! We all want to have fun with it, which is why I recommend a beer money account (btw, I also do that in my investments. I have a smaller “to the moon account” and my larger "sustained growth” account). Honestly, that’s the best of both worlds. You get your emotional fun but you’re not financially distressing. So, make sure that you’re keeping your betting amounts to one that you’re not celebrating or freaking out on a bet-by-bet or day-to-day basis.

If you have any questions, be sure to reply to this email! Best of luck!

ON THE BOARD
This Week in Sports Betting

🏀 Thursday: NBA Finals begin. The NBA Finals between the Celtics and Mavericks begin on Thursday after a long layoff. The Celtics are favored (-225). On the futures markets, both are good results, with the Celtics being better. If early betting is any indication, they’ll be rooting for the Celtics all around as well.
🏒 Saturday: Stanley Cup Finals begin. The Stanley Cup Finals between the Oilers and Panthers begin on Saturday after a decently long layoff there as well. The Panthers are barely favored (-125). The sharps are on the Oilers. However, the public should be on them too (they’re worse for Futures). So, I’d think the books would be at odds with the sharps and will be rooting for the Panthers there.
⚾️ All week: Regular season is in full swing. The MLB regular season is continuing. We wrap up the week with a Dodgers-Yankees series. The books should end up rooting for the Dodgers there, but stayed tuned for that one. With teams that evenly matched and popular, if one team is hot going into it than they’ll be rooting for the opposing team.
🏇 Saturday: Belmont Stakes. The final leg of the Triple Crown will be run. It is taking place at Saratoga this year rather than Belmont due to renovations. Sierra Leone is the 3-1 favorite. Preakness winner Seize the Grey is 5-1. Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan is 12-1. The post position draw is at 5 PM ET today.
🎾All week: French Open. After a rainy first week that kept the sharps away, the French Open is into the latter rounds. The books got what they wanted in terms of avoiding upsets (11 of the top 13 seeds in the Men’s bracket and the top 5 seeds in the Women’s bracket are still alive), but now they’d want some upsets. Iga Swiatek is the women’s favorite (-190) and Carlos Alcaraz is the men’s favorite (+160).

TAKING THE POINTS
3 Quick Tips to help you find your Edge

• When betting player props, be aware of your ratio of Over bets vs. Under bets. If you’re consistently betting Overs, it’s rare that you’ll end up with a positive return.

• If you’re betting Finals futures (either NHL or NBA), consider tying your bet to one of the most likely MVP winners (Tatum, Doncic, McDavid, Tkachuk, etc.) to improve your odds.

• Don’t force bets. Just because an popular event is going on, don’t feel like you have to bet it. Or, just use beer money.

KEY NUMBERS
News from around the betting world

🇺🇸 54%. Despite being the first former US President to be indicted, Donald Trump’s odds have barely decreased to 54% on Polymarket. Elsewhere around the world, Keir Starmer (95%) should oust Rishi Sunak as the British PM, and Narendra Modi (99%) should win reelection as the Indian PM.
 🏀 $98,750. With the Mavericks WCF win, the Caesars’ bettor from last week cashed that $98,750 parlay.
🎰 14. The Michigan Gaming Control Board (MGCB) sent a cease-and-desist notice to offshore bookmaker Bovada. Bovada has 14 days to respond or be subject to legal action. Let’s see if other states take similar action.
🎰$569M. The State of Nevada reported $569M in handle in April. It might seem like a lot, but, that’s actually a decline from last year. The state, which is the historical heart of legal US sports betting, was 6th in handle in April, behind New York, New Jersey, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts.

POLL

TRIVIA

Last week, we asked:

What was the first major sports betting event in US history?
A. 1844: US vs. Canada Cricket
B. 1875: Kentucky Derby
C. 1881: Yale vs. Princeton
D. 1903: World Series

The correct answer was A. 1844: US vs. Canada Cricket. Around $120K was wagered on that match (about $1.5M-$2M in today’s value), which was the largest amount at the time. Odds are unknown, as are the betting splits. The match was in New York, so I’d assume most of the betting was on the USA. Canada won the match.

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