Seven Tips for Betting Super Bowl LIX Props

OPENING LINE

Good evening sharps! I hope you had a great week betting and overall.

Today’s edition is around Super Bowl props. Since the scheduling got all out of whack, there will be a few next week. Monday’s will be on how to bet during the post-Super Bowl down period.

But, we’re not there yet! Let’s dig into the Super Bowl below.

-Anish

THE STRAIGHT BET
Seven Tips for Super Bowl LIX Props

It’s Super Bowl Weekend! One of the best times of the year. Billions of dollars will be wagered on the game tomorrow. Over 70-80% will be on the vast array of props. I’ll go through seven tips to help you navigate these markets.

I hope you find it useful in your wagering, and best of luck!

Tip #1: Shop Around

This goes for most every bet, but, especially props. On an over/under for rushing yards, that might be different by a few yards across different books. As I write this, the Saquon Barkley O/U is 113.5 at Caesars but 109.5 at FanDuel. That matters!! Also, some books might be priced at -120/-120 and others at -110/-110. Even on YES/NO bets, the juice/odds are very different at different books, so make sure to look at different books to get the best line for your side. For example, if betting the Under on Saquon rushing yards, I’d bet at Caesars. If on the Over, I’d bet on FanDuel. Those few yards are the difference between a win, loss, or push and that juice (either + or -) is a real dollar impact and it adds up!

Tip #2: Create a narrative

Create a story on how you think the game will go. If you’re into models/simulations, run those. That way, your entire profile of props make sense. For example, it probably won’t make sense to bet the Chiefs team total Under and then Kelce to score multiple touchdowns. You want to make sure they are somewhat correlated.

Tip #3: No and Under

In the Super Bowl, if you’re on the fence, then always lean No and Under. The public will mostly be on YES. YES to OT, YES to a safety, YES to a kick hitting the Upright, YES to anytime TD’s, etc. Why? They want excitement. And, excitement comes with YES’s, and so the books and sharps always want NO. Fun fact: You know what the worst prop betting play has been in Super Bowl history? When the Seahawks scored on a safety on the first play from scrimmage in Super Bowl XLVIII. That was a 7-figure loss for the books on the single play! The public hit the YES to safety and the first score safety prop and a whole host of other things. Many of the bookmakers hadn’t even turned on the game yet! They did end up ahead on that game because the public was on the Broncos and all of their offensive props (they lost 43-8).

In regards to excitement, the public will bet the Overs as well. Overs on TDs, yards, etc. Again, because of excitement. Did the public enjoy the Rams-Patriots Super Bowl a few years ago that ended 13-3? Hell no! The books and sharps sure did though.

Tip #4: Look for correlated props

If you're all in on the Eagles winning the Super Bowl, then look for props that will most likely happen in that scenario. For example, Jalen Hurts should have to have a decent game, so you might bet the Overs on his stats. Or, 60% of all MVPs have been quarterbacks (including many recently), so if you think the Eagles would win, then bet Jalen Hurts to be MVP. If you think the Chiefs will, then bet on Mahomes.

Also, look for correlated statistical props. If you think the game will go over the point total, then, pick the Overs on QB yards, TDs, etc. Or, vice-versa. If you think the Eagles will win, then you might pick Eagles Overs and Chiefs Unders. 

On the flip side, don't bet too many props that would contradict eachother. I.E, If you bet the Over on the game and a lot of Unders on the props. 

Tip #5: Don’t bet too many props (or, if you do, practice bankroll management!)

Don't go out betting 20-30 props. You won't have an edge on most of them, and, the ones that you actually do have an edge on, might be negated by those many props you don't have an edge on. But, if you do, practice bankroll management. You'll not have an edge on the Gatorade color, but you might bet it for fun. Just take a portion of your bankroll (maybe 1-2 units), and split it up. It might just be a few dollars here and there, but you're just playing for fun and to make it interesting!

However, spreads and totals might not give you as much control. If I take Chiefs -3 at -110, typically the books don’t offer Chiefs -3 at -230, or +150 if the odds of them covering change. They offer a new live line at whatever is 50/50. Therefore, I can’t exit that position as easily. My control is less.

Tip #6: Watch line movement

With hundreds and hundreds of props out there, a lot of times, the books just put out a number and let the sharps beat it into place. The lines are relatively soft. Watching that line movement can help you distinguish where the sharps are, and, then you can try to find books that are late to adjust (see Tip #1!). This line movement can present middling opportunities as well.

Know that the very public props (QB passing yards, receiving yards), etc. will be pushed up by the public, so, if you're looking to bet the Under, wait until gametime. The sharps are doing that as well. 

Tip #7: Don’t Same-Game Parlay

This is a whole other newsletter topic, but don’t bet SGP’s. Books have around a 40% edge on them. In comparison, they have about a 2-3% edge on straight bets. No one will ever win long-term on SGPs, unless they’re horribly mispriced (which they won’t be in the Super Bowl.) Just do straight bets.

Wrap Up

Personally, I don’t stake too much on Super Bowl props and look at them as a fun thing. However, I do mostly play a bunch of straight bet NO’s/Unders. Just some fade the public plays or following the sharps.

If you have any questions, be sure to reply to this email! Best of luck!

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