Seven Strategies for filling out a Pool-Winning Bracket for March Madness 2025

OPENING LINE

Good afternoon sharps! I hope you had a great week betting and overall.

Today’s edition is is how to put optimize your bracket to put you in the best position to win your pool.

Best of luck!

-Anish

THE STRAIGHT BET
Seven Strategies for filling out a Pool-Winning Bracket for March Madness 2025

Here are seven strategies that will help you win your March Madness 2025 pool. I utilized these strategies in winning pools since the late-90's, including the past few years since I’ve started putting together this article. Many readers have won pools as well. In 2019, I even went 4/4 in Final Four teams (a 1-in-5,000 shot!!) in one of my pools. Even if I don't win, I'm always in the mix when it gets to the Final Four, and have almost always won $$ in the secondary positions. So much so, that my wife calls it our March bonus. 🤣 

In most large pools, you're going to have to get the champion right to even have a shot at winning the pool. The average winning score in a standard scoring system is between 120-150 points. A champion is worth 63 points. That means half of your points will come from the champion! Therefore, I like to pick my champion first. The only time I've ever won a pool (or even money) without getting the champion right was the perfect Final Four one because I was so far ahead that I won before the Final Four even started. 

Strategy #1: Work Backwards

Yes, that’s right? Do you pick the first round winners first, then the second round, etc? Basically, play out the tournament on paper? Or, when you fill it out on ESPN. I always did that too.

But, it’s better to do it the other way around. Pick your champion first, then your runner-up on the other side of the bracket, then the two losing Final Four teams, etc. As mentioned above, getting the champion right matters the most (under most scoring systems). In my 25 years of doing pools, I’ve rarely seen the winner not get the champion right in any decent sized pool. Pick the most probable champions, runner-ups, etc. to give you the best chance to win. How do you do that? On to #2…

Strategy #2: Utilize Models and Betting Numbers

They don’t Need to be ones you create either! You can use free ones. Recently, I’ve put more of an emphasis on the sharp odds rather than the models, but, if I need to fill in the gaps, I’ll use the models.

In terms of the sharpest odds, I’ll use the non-vig odds from Pinnacle for the regional winners and the champions as a guide. That will give you a true proportion as well.

If I need to fill in the gap with the free models, I’ll use ESPN’s BPI, KenPom, Torvik, etc.

But, especially this year, it’s top heavy. The four #1 seeds (Auburn, Duke, Florida, and Houston) have about a 60-65% chance of winning the title. So, if you have four brackets and choose each one as a champ, you’re going to be in the mix for some $$.

Strategy #3: See who the Public will select and fade them.

Yes, your old betting adage of fading the public applies here too. If a team is getting selected at a disproportionate rate, their loss will kill off most of those brackets.

I love to use ESPN’s Who Picked Whom list along with Yahoo’s Pick Distribution, which shows the most common selections of millions of brackets in their pools. To me, this is the best indicator of who a large amount of people in your pool will select.

In 2019, Duke (led by Zion) was disproportionally selected as champions in 27% of brackets, even though the models and odds only showed with a 15% chance of winning, less than Virginia (25%) and Gonzaga (20%). From this, I knew that most people in my pool would pick Duke to reach the Final Four and to win the title (it ended up being around 50% across my pools), so instead of getting caught up in the Duke rat race, I decided to not choose them as champions in any of my brackets, meaning their loss would basically eliminate the majority of my competition. Speaking them…

Strategy #4: Understand who your competition will pick based on the makeup of your pool.

Are you in a pool where most people are in Texas or Houston? They’ll mostly pick Houston to win. Don’t pick Houston in that pool. Are you in a pool where most of the majority are Auburn alumni? Don’t pick Auburn in that pool. There will be a disproportionate number of people picking those teams. For example, one pool I’m in is mostly college buddies and their friends in Michigan. They’ll pick Michigan and Michigan State to go far, along with the other Midwest schools. In another pool, with mostly high school buddies from Seattle, they’ll pick Gonzaga and other west coast schools to go far. So, if I was to pick Michigan State for example, I’d avoid using them in the Michigan pool.

Strategy #5: Take into account who Vegas does not want (or wants) to win!

When the sportsbooks have liabilities in the futures markets, it means that they’re okay taking a chance on that team (meaning, they don’t expect that team to win, and they’re okay with taking a risk in losing all that cash). In 2022, Vegas had liabilities on Gonzaga, Houston, UCLA, and a few others. None reached the Final Four, nor won the title. It’s best not to have these teams as your champion. This year, one liability is Duke. Also, I’d look to who the professionals are betting on. In 2022, they were on Kansas. In 2023, they were on UConn. This year, one team they’re on is Auburn.

Later today, we’ll be releasing the Futures Report that covers this more in-depth!

Strategy #6: Create a realistic bracket using history as a guide!

There will not be all #1 seeds in the Final Four. That’s only happened once in history. There most likely won’t be a #5 seed to win the title. If you had 5 brackets, here’s how you should break down your selections based on historical results.

What does that mean? It means you should only have #1-#3 seeds in your championship game and as your champion. Your Final Four itself will mostly be #1 and #2 seeds and occasionally #3-#5 seeds. Pick some #1 seeds to lose in the Second Round and some #2 seeds as well. Don’t pick the 1/16 upset, but do pick a 2/15 upset, only if you had 5+ brackets, and maybe if your scoring system rewarded upsets. Speaking of which…

Strategy #7: Optimize your bracket for the pool’s scoring system!

Putting together a bracket in a pool using a standard 1-2-4-8-16-32 system is much different than a pool using a 1-2-4-8-12-20 system, or one that has an upset multiplier, etc. 

In a standard system, getting the championship game right is worth as much as the entire first round! In one where upsets matter, you're going to want to lean to your 5-12, 6-11 upsets, etc. 

The pool in which I went 4/4 in Final Four teams rewarded upsets in all rounds. Therefore, the optimal bracket did turn out to be a Virginia, Michigan State, Auburn, Texas Tech Final Four. I wouldn't have gone with that Final Four combination in any other scoring system. That's why my other one turned out to be Virginia, Kentucky, Duke, and Michigan. 

BONUS TIP

I view bracket pools as part of my overall portfolio for March Madness, including betting. So, be sure to optimize that based on the return. For example, one pool I’m in has a $100 buy-in. IIRC, the winner usually gets $2K and the top 5 or 6 get paid at least $500+. Auburn is only about +500. Therefore, if I bet Futures, a $100 bet on Auburn will get me $500. However, I know I’d place top 5 in my pool if Auburn wins, and so I’d rather just bet Auburn there where I will win at least $500 anyways.

But, for a longshot like Tennessee, at +2000, I’d rather just use them on the Futures market. So, also something to consider as you’re formulating your pools.

Wrap Up

Always work backwards and pick your champion first. Utilize models in doing so. See who the public is picking and fade them. In doing that, understand who your competition will pick based on their biases. Take what Vegas wants to happen into account. Ensure your bracket is realistic and optimized for your pool’s scoring system.

Later on today, we’ll be releasing the Futures Report as mentioned, followed by an Odds Analysis that compares the true odds of each team winning with their Pick Proportion on ESPN/Yahoo. Tomorrow morning, on social media (@BETTREdge), I’ll be releasing my Final Fours based on all of these tips/information.

Best of luck!

-Anish