We're Going Streaking!

OPENING LINE

Good morning sharps! I hope you had a great weekend betting and overall. Belated Happy Father’s Day to all the dads out there!

In this week’s edition, we’ll walk you through the statistics and science of winning and losing streaks, and how you can implement that in your betting. We’ll also give you an overview of what’s going on in the sports betting world, give you some tips that will help you for the week, and cover some of the news in the industry.

Please do give your feedback at the bottom and we’ll make any necessary changes.

Best of luck this week!

THE STRAIGHT BET
We’re Going Streaking!

Winning bettors go through losing streaks. Losing bettors go through winning streaks. I’m sure you have as well. You’ve probably been overconfident after a winning streak, or thought the world was ending after a losing streak. So, we’re going to go through the science and statistics of streaks, and how you should react and use it in practice.

📈 How long can a winning/losing streak be?

A losing or winning streak can be indefinite. There is a scenario where you may never lose a bet again. There’s also one where you can never win a bet again, but, those odds are astronomical. But, we can calculate the maximum likely losing/winning steak. The formula is:

|ln(n)/ln(P)|

Or in plain terms, absolute value the natural logarithmic value of n divided by the natural logarithmic value of P.

n is the total number of bets.
P is the probability.

Let’s look at a bettor Joe. He plans to bet 100 times in a season, and is a 55% bettor. ln(100)/ln(0.55)=7.7 (or 14). Meaning, his longest winning streak is likely to be ~8. On the other side, his longest likely losing streak is likely to be ~6.

We can apply this to all different types of bets. Let’s say you bet a parlay every day for 100 days that has a 20% chance of hitting. You’re likely to win 3 parlays in a row. You’re also likely to lose 21 in a row. Let’s say you’re taking that -900 “lock” favorite. You’re likely to win 44 in a row, but you’re also likely to lose 2 in a row.

Over the course of a month (100 bets), a bettor is likely to have a winning streak of at least 6-9 bets, and a losing streak of 5-8 bets. Over the course of a year, they’re likely to have a 9-14 bet winning streak, and an 8-12 bet losing streak. A 45% bettor will be on the lower end, and a 60% bettor will be on the higher end.

⏱️ When will my winning/losing streak be?

Now that we know how long our maximim winning/losing streak is, when will it happen? Of course, we won’t know for certain, but, we can figure out the likelihood of it happening. That formula is:

((1/P)^a)*a.

Or, 1 divided by P to the power of a. P is probability, and a is the number of won (or lost) bets in a row.

So, for Joe, if I want to know when he would experience a 3 bet win streak, I’d do (1/0.55) to the power of 3, which equals 6. So, Joe is likely to experience a 3-bet win streak once in every set of 6 3 bet sequences, or a maximum of 18 bets. For a losing streak, he should have had a 3 bet losing streak once in every 11-bet sequence, or a maximum of 33 bets. But, he could’ve had a win streak of five, or a multiple 3-bet win streaks, but, there should be at least one in there.

🍀 What’s the probability of a specific winning streak?

Now, I’m sure you want to know how often will you have a 10-bet winning streak? That formula is a little bit more complicated, so here’s a handy calculator. Ignore where it says loss probability. Just use the probability of what you’re looking for.

So, if I want to know the likelihood of Joe putting together a 10-bet win streak this month (100 bets), I can plug that in, and get ~10%.

😀 Why all this matters…

So now, we know how long our winning/losing streak could be, when it might happen, and the probability of it happening, so how we can use it in practice? There’s a few ways.

Bankroll Management

Now that you know a losing streak of X amount is going to happen and when, you can reduce your bankroll in those moments. You can anticipate those streaks. Additionally, lets say you know your likely maximum losing streak. You can ensure that your bankroll is X times (maybe 10 times) that amount so you don’t go bust in a losing streak. Another thing you can do is to track your bets during a losing streak, but just don’t actually wager them.

Determining Bet Types

Now that you know the probability and likelihood of a winning streak, you can use it to effectively decide when to parlay. You can do the same with teasers or any combination bet types.

Emotional Control

Now that you know that you’re going to go on a losing streak of at least 5-6 bets every 100 bets, don’t fret it. Just let it run its course. And vice-versa for a winning streak. Don’t get over the moon. Those long winning/losing streaks will happen once a month if you bet enough. Even the worst bettors will have a long winning streak once a year. Just stay the course!

Anticipation

Now that you know how long a winning and losing streak might be, you can better prepare yourself for it ending, both emotionally and with bankroll management. For example, let’s say you’re a 55% bettor and are on a 7 bet winning streak. Depending on timeframe, you’re most likely to have a 8-12 maximum winning streak, so you can anticipate it ending soon and not go crazy.

Assessing your/others performance

We get get into all the probabilities, but one thing is for certain. As mentioned above, the worst bettors will have a long winning streak of 9-10 bets once a year. But, we can’t pinpoint exactly when it will happen. It might happen in his first ten bets, or his last ten. What will happen if its his first ten? He’ll think he’s the greatest capper in the world and increase his stake from $20/bet to $100 and then that inevitable 10-12 bet losing streak will happen. Don’t be this person.

Wrap Up

Knowing your maximum winning/losing streaks, when they can happen, and more is very essential to bankroll and emotional management. It’s very valuable in terms of setting expectations, so be sure to apply this in your betting and betting strategy.

If you have any questions, be sure to reply to this email! Best of luck!

ON THE BOARD
This Week in Sports Betting

🏀 Today/Thursday/Sunday: NBA Finals continue. The NBA Finals wrap up this week, maybe as soon as today. It might not continue past that with the Celtics up 3-1. They’re -1800 to win the series. The books would still want the Celtics to win the series eventually.
🏒 Tuesday/Friday: Stanley Cup Finals contiue. The Stanley Cup Finals continue later this week. The Panthers are up 3-1 and are -1100 to win the series. The books would still want them to win the series. However, sharps are still on the Oilers to win the title. As of this morning, the books would be rooting for the Oilers to extend the series tomorrow.
⚾️ All week: Regular season is in full swing. The MLB regular season is continuing. We wrap up the week with a Mets-Cubs series. The books should end up rooting for the Mets.
⚽️ Thursday: Copa America begins. The Copa America soccer tournament begins in Atlanta between World Cup Champions Argentina and Canada. Books should be rooting for the Draw or Canada in that one. Argentina (+175) and Brazil (+225) are the favorites to win the title. The hosts United States are fifth-favorites at +1200.

TAKING THE POINTS
3 Quick Tips to help you find your Edge

• You don’t have to bet everything. Focus on one or two sports, or even leagues, or even teams, and become an expert there.

• Similar to what we mentioned about tennis and the French Open last week, the same applies to golf. With the US Open having just ended, look ahead to the British Open now. You could get a good price for a player who is in good form.

• If you’re betting futures, you don’t always have to just stick to one throughout the year. You can hedge with others.

KEY NUMBERS
News from around the betting world

🇺🇸 56%. Donald Trump’s odds have stayed at 56% on Polymarket. This is the still the highest he’s been trading all all year. Elsewhere around the world, Keir Starmer (96%) is holding steady to oust Rishi Sunak as the British PM. There is still a 2% chance of a nuclear bomb going off by the end of the month.
 ⚾️ 100% In what is seemingly a weekly occurence, another person in sports is under investigation for gambling. This time, it’s umpire Pat Holberg. He had a perfect (100%) accuracy in calling balls and strikes in the 2022 World Series. Today, he has appealed the decision.
🏏+1200. The US National Cricket Team qualified to the Super 8 round of the T20 Cricket World Cup. They were +1200 to qualify. They’re now in a group with the West Indies, South Africa and England. The top two teams qualify for the semifinals. The US are still rank outsiders. They are 10-1 to qualify for the semifinals, and 170-1 to win the title.
🎰 40%. Sports Handle, Bettson, and Gamble ID issued their report on the State of Sports Betting. I highly suggest you read it. Lots of highlights, but something interesting is that only 40% of bettors withdrew some or all of their winnings.

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