Control: The underrated Factor in determining your betting approach

OPENING LINE

Good evening sharps! I hope you had a great week betting and overall.

In this week’s edition, we’ll walk you through control, determining it, and how it should dictate your betting. We’ll also give you an overview of what’s going on in the sports betting world, give you some tips that will help you for the week, and cover some of the news in the industry.

Please do give your feedback at the bottom and we’ll make any necessary changes.

Best of luck this weekend!

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THE STRAIGHT BET
Control: The underrated Factor in determining your betting approach

Understanding how much control you have is a key determinant to figuring out your betting strategy. I’m not talking about emotional control, controlling the outcome (rigging), or bankroll. Let’s go through that…

What is control?

When we are talking about control, we mean the ability to control your money from beginning to end. You might think of betting as you place a bet, it gets deducted from your account and goes into the ethers of the sportsbook, and you either win or lose at the end. All of it is true. 99% of bettors do this, and it’s also where you have the least amount of control.

Think a bet like an investment in an asset. That team or total you bet on? It’s just an investment in that position. It’s just a transfer of wealth. Nothing happens until you sell off that asset. They key difference between a normal investment and a bet is that you’re forced to sell off the asset after a set period (the end of the match). Usually, at a 100% loss or a 100% gain. It’s somewhat similar to trading options.

However, until that point, you are in control. You can take a 30% loss or 30% gain or anything in between a 100% loss or 100% gain. You can double down on a position, or sell off a bit, just like in the financial markets.

Control will dictate how much you bet.

The more you’re in control, the more you can stake. Staking is different from risking. Staking is how much you’re betting. Risking is how much you’re willing to lose. 99% of bettors just risk their stake. I.E. I bet $100, and I’m going to lose $100.

However, when I invest $1K in Tesla, I’m not going to lose that much. I’ll get out if my stake goes down to $900. Therefore, my stake is $1K, and my risk is $100. The same thing can be applied to betting. You can stake $1K, but only risk $100 i.e., cashout, hedge, or even sell your position once you are down $1000.

Your risk would still be $100, but, depending on how much control you have, your stake could be $100, or it could be much more.

What determines how much control you have?

Control is determined by a few different factors. Unlike the financial markets, sports betting is NOT standard between different books, geographies, or even people.

• Type of Bet

• Sportsbook

• Sport

• Point of the game

• Location/Personal Factors

Let’s go through each one-by-one…

Type of Bet. A moneyline bet offers the most control. There’s two outcomes. One team loses, and the other team wins. The odds of those change throughout the game. Therefore, you can get out of a position if it becomes untenable, or keep it. Parlays and futures also offer some control, because the books might offer a cashout. There’s the ability to make a clean exit.

However, spreads and totals might not give you as much control. If I take Chiefs -3 at -110, typically the books don’t offer Chiefs -3 at -230, or +150 if the odds of them covering change. They offer a new live line at whatever is 50/50. Therefore, I can’t exit that position as easily. My control is less.

Sportsbook. The actual sportsbook gives you some level of control, but it varies between them. Some let you cashout, others don’t. Some lock lines at different times. Study how your sportsbooks react to certain situations. That will help you determine the amount of control you have.

However, betting exchanges offer the most amount of control. Some literally let you sell off a position at any time, much like a stock exchange. In my Chiefs example above, they will keep the # the same and change the odds.

Sport. Some sports are more volatile than others. Volatility means you have less control. For example, in soccer, one goal changes the odds drastically. In basketball, one bucket doesn’t. It’s much easier to get out of positions in the less volatile sports (like basketball and football). One score doesn’t change much, except for…

Point of the Game. The further the game goes along, the less control you might have. Even in basketball, if it’s tied with 20 seconds left, it basically comes down to luck. You have no control. You’re subject to a bounce of a ball. Volatility increases. Also, the books just stop offering lines as well. If it looks like it’s going to be volatile, I just get out. Even if not, I’d still get out. For example, it might be 8-0 in a baseball game going into the 9th. Since it’s not timebound, you can theoretically have a 9 run inning in the 9th and lose. I’ll just cashout or hedge and take 99% of the winnings. Remember, I might have staked $1K, but only risked $100. I’m not trying to risk all $1K.

Location/Personal Factors. Everyone’s location is different, and you have different sportsbooks/exchanges offered at each one. Also, time zone plays into it. You’re going to have less control if you’re asleep!

On a day-to-day, things come up in your personal life. You’re not going to just be sitting in front of an odds screen all day. Some days, you might have personal commitments. If I know I have no realistic access to sports betting, then my stake will go down to match my risk. In that case, I’m just going to bet $100 and engage in traditional sports betting. Just set it and forget it.

Determine your level of control everyday

Every morning, I’ll go through those five factors and determine how I’m going to approach how to bet. One factor might literally change everyday (the last one).

For example, if I’m betting on the NFL in New Jersey, where I have access to an exchange like SportsTrade, and I’m sitting at home, I will up my stake because I have more control. However, if I’m betting on the NFL in New Jersey but I’m going out with friends, I’ll lessen that. Or, if I bet on the NFL while overseas and it’s in the middle of the night, my stake will dramatically decrease.

Wrap Up

You can control your $$ while betting, but there are different factors that go into it. Review those every morning and use that to dictate how much you stake. When you think of a unit, think of it in terms of risk, not in terms of stake.

Also, the level of control one has differs day-to-day. It differs person to person. Literally, if one hundred people are on the same bet, they should be taking one hundred different approaches, because those five factors aren’t equal for everyone everyday.

If you have any questions, be sure to reply to this email! Best of luck!

ON THE BOARD
This Week(end) in Sports Betting

⚾️ All weekend: Regular season is in full swing. The MLB is back after the All-Star Break. The week wraps up with a Yankees-Red Sox series. The public should be all over the Yankees there.
🏅 Today: Summer Olympics begin. The international sports festival begins in Paris on Friday with the opening ceremony. However, typically, most events aren’t very highly bet, and the books have rarely offered odds outside of the major events. Let’s see if that changes. From a betting perspective, the marquee event is basketball. Typically, the books root for the US to win (and win the Gold), but not to cover. They’re heavy favorites to win the Gold at -350.

TAKING THE POINTS
3 Quick Tips to help you find your Edge

• When betting NFL Futures, look at who will have a tough draw over the first few weeks. If they get off to a slow start, you’ll get a better number.

• When betting the Olympics, keep your unit size very small on the smaller, unique, sports. Really, you’re not going to know about Beach volleyball than someone with the books whose job it is to watch the tour all year.

• On the flip side, if you’re an expert on a sport, and know more than the books, then, hit it hard! Field hockey fan? Know the teams in and out? Focus on that.

KEY NUMBERS
News from around the betting world

🇺🇸 60%. Donald Trump’s odds are now at 60% on Polymarket. Kamala Harris is at 39%, after Biden dropped out. These numbers have been extremely volatile lately with all the news. Trump topped out at 70% shortly after the assassination attempt, but has since come down a little bit. From a books perspective, Kamala is a liability for them.
⚽️+802 and +175. Spain and Argentina won the Euros and Copa America respectively on Sunday. Spain opened as +802 and won their fourth title, the most in Euros history. Now two-time defending champions and reigning World Cup champions Argentina were favored to win Copa America at +175 and did. They now have the most Copa America titles in history. Argentina has maintained its #1 spot in the FIFA Rankings, while Spain has jumped up to #3 (behind France). The two champions will meet next year in the Finalissima.
🎰 35. The Mirage and its famous sportsbook in Las Vegas closed its doors after 35 years. It will reopen in a few years after a rebranding to Hard Rock.
🎰 $21B. Legal online sports gambling was temporarily suspended in Washington DC as a new city fiscal budget of $21B was being approved. It is now back online.

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