Anticipating Line Movements: An Underrated Skill

OPENING LINE

Good afternoon sharps! I hope you had a great weekend betting and overall.

In this week’s edition, we’ll walk you through what causes line movements and how to anticipate them, both pregame and in-game. We’ll also give you an overview of what’s going on in the sports betting world, give you some tips that will help you for the week, and cover some of the news in the industry.

Please do give your feedback at the bottom and we’ll make any necessary changes.

Best of luck this week!

THE STRAIGHT BET
Anticipating Line Movements

Anticipating line movements is one of the biggest and most underrated skills in sports betting. In the financial markets, you can make a lot of $$ if you can anticipate where a price is heading (and people do!). The same is true in sports betting. Think of the odds or line as a price, because that’s really all it is. It’s the price of an asset. Many bettors do just “trade” lines pregame and don’t even bet in-game, especially overseas on betting exchanges.

Below, we’ll cover pregame and in-game line movements, how to anticipate them, and how to make use of them.

📈 Pregame Line Movements

Understanding and anticipating pregame line movements is crucial no matter what type of bettor you are. For example, let’s say you take an Under 55 at -110, and that line moves to Under 52. Your Under 55 might now be priced at -150. Remember, you’re holding it at -110, and now it has a ~60% chance of winning and you didn’t do anything!

Prior to the game, lines move for one of five main reasons.

1. Sharp Action

2. Public Action

3. Players

4. Conditions

5. Other Sportsbooks

Let’s deep dive into each one.

Sharp Action. This is the main driver of line movements. After a book sets a line, the sharps (either singular professionals or syndicates) usually “beat” the line into place, almost immediately! The books love this since sometimes it corrects their mistakes. The dollar number doesn’t always matter. Sometimes a $500 bet from someone very respected in that space moves the line more than any $10K bet.

Public Action. Though not as impactful as sharp action, public action does move lines as well, especially for larger events such as the Super Bowl. But, it can also impact smaller events. If the liability is larger on a side than the books ideally want, they’ll move the line to attract action on the other side. The sharps love to take advantage of inflated lines and sometimes the sportsbooks offer those to them when trying to reduce liability.

Players. When a line is created, part of it is based on the actual players in the game. Of course, that can change. Players get injured or rest, and oftentimes that’s not known until gameday or closer to gametime. Or, the extent of an injury might not be known. As soon as it’s confirmed that a player is or isn’t playing, or his injury status, the line moves. Across sports, the most impactful players to a line are quarterbacks in football, pitchers in baseball, and star players in basketball.

Conditions. Some outdoor sports, such as baseball or football, are impacted by weather conditions. Poor weather conditions impact scoring, or make it easier for a team with specific strength (running vs. passing for example). As soon as those conditions are realized, the line moves. For example, if the wind blowing in at Wrigley is 25 MPH instead of an expected 10 MPH, you’ll see a shift in the total.

Other Sportsbooks. The recreational sportsbooks (FanDuel, DraftKings, etc.) usually release their lines first, before the sharp books. They view their offerings as a product, and want to take advantage of being first to market. However, once the sharp books release their lines, the recreational books might move their lines to be similar to the sharp books. For example, lets say the recreational books opened the Chiefs as -3 point favorites, but the sharp books opened them at -5 point favorites, you’ll see the recreational books move to -4, -4.5, or -5, or even -5.5.

Putting this to Use Pregame

Sharp Action Foreshadowing. Usually sharp action foreshadows the line movement based on players and conditions. For example, sharp action against the Chiefs might foreshadow Patrick Mahomes being ruled out. It’s rare that it goes against the sharps. For example, it’ll be rare that they go against the Chiefs, move the line from -3 to -2, and then Patrick Mahomes is ruled in and the line goes from -2 to -5, but it happens from time to time.

Early Sharp Action. Look to see how the lines move as soon as they’re released, especially at sharp books like Circa, BookMaker, and Pinnacle. That’s usually sharp action. And, typically, they’ll continue to move in the same direction (i.e., a Total from 55 to 52). Also, the first movements are usually the biggest. Meaning, if there is buyback, it won’t be as extreme. For example, a line won’t move from 55 to 52 and back to 56. It’ll maybe come back from 52 to 53, but should remain below that opening 55 number. Most likely, they’ll be on the under and underdog, but not always.

Resistance Points in Football. Just like on the financial markets, betting lines do have resistance points. In football, they’re the key numbers. There, the key numbers are 3, 7, 10, 14, 17, 21, etc. These are the common margins based on the unique scoring in football. Typically, lines will move within those key numbers. For example, if it starts at -5 and goes down to -4, it might get to, but not past -3.

Putting it all together Pregame

Lines typically get released the evening prior (for daily sports), or the Sunday prior (for the NFL). In the NFL, it’s usually just before Sunday Night Football for the sharp books. The recreational books have moved up a day earlier to Saturday. However, for all sports, the lines don’t come out until the team has finished playing their prior game.

Look at the initial price movements (with a bias towards the Underdog and Under). That’s the best signal of the direction of the line, as that’s sharp action. You might also benefit from a bigger move later on due to players or conditions. But, also, be wary of resistance points. Remember to watch what the sharp books open with to indicate how the recreational books might move.

If you’re betting on an exchange, you can buy into a position, watch it appreciate, and then sell it off before the game. If you’re betting traditionally, use this to get the best line on your side, or, to find a middling opportunity.

📈In-Game Line Movements

Lines move much more drastically in-game, and if you can anticipate those, you can benefit greatly. The magnitude of a line movement depends on what point of the game it is, and the number of decision points/scoring plays. For example, football might have 120-150 plays, and only 5-10 scoring plays, but soccer might only have 3. We’ll dig into each sport below.

🏈 Football. In football (both college and pro), the line gradually increases or decreases if there’s a very methodical drive. However, the line can shift very drastically on a big play, but especially on a turnover inside the 25’s, and even moreso on a scoring turnover. That could move the line by around 5 points on a single play.

🏀 Basketball. Basketball is a game of swings, and so you can see a line rapidly increase or decrease as a team gets momentum, or if both teams are shooting hot or cold. However, you won’t see big movements based on a singular play outside of crunch time. That’s because each team gets over 100 possessions, and any scoring play only represents ~1% of their finishing total.

⚾️ Baseball. In baseball, you won’t see major line movements, with an exception. They’ll gradually go up and down as men got on base, or people get out. However, you’ll see a major swing if teams get out of a jam. If they go from 2-on nobody out to all three out without any scoring, you’ll see a major shift there.

🏒 Hockey. Hockey lines move either very gradually or very rapidly. If a team is winning, you’ll see odds gradually move towards them. If it’s tied, it will gradually move towards 50/50. Of course, the jolt comes with a goal. You might see a line move 15% in that case, except for if a team is winning 4-0 and their opponent makes it 4-1.

⚽️ Soccer. Soccer is similar to hockey. The lines will converge on the team that is winning, or towards the draw if tied. Then, you’d get a big jolt if a team scores.

The impacts of these movements get much bigger as the game goes on. No matter the sport, do know that they get very volatile at the end, and I recommend not betting or exiting positions in the last 1/8 of the game.

If we’re looking at it from a “decision point” perspective, think of it as “decision points remaining.” I.E, if we’re late in an NBA game, there might only be a few possessions left, so each one might have a large impact, especially in a close game.

Putting this to Use In-Game.

Anticipating line movements in-game is a little bit tougher than pregame. Betting action doesn’t dictate it as much. It’s mostly game action. So, how can we anticipate it? There’s two main ways.

1. Track the lines.

2. Watch the action

Tracking the lines is pretty tough. But, if you can scrape the live lines of FanDuel or DraftKings every few minutes, you can analyze those, plot it against a simple moving average of that line, and you can see if it’s starting to trend the other way. Or, you can literally just watch the movements on your phone.

You can also see how your books move in comparison to the more efficient sharp books (Pinnacle, Bookmaker, Circa) and betting exchanges (SportTrade, BetFair). If these are all moving in a direction, it means that your book will start to follow that.

Watching the action is great if you are a fan of that sport or know that sport. For example, let’s take hockey. When the Panthers were up 2-1 yesterday, the line was gradually increasing. The only risk is if the Oilers scored. If the Oilers upped the pressure, you could anticipate a goal might come, which might lead you to exit a Panthers position. Also, see if a team/teams start off uncharacteristically hot or cold. For example, if two basketball teams come out and shoots 70% in the first quarter, you can expect the total to go up, but then start to decrease as the shooting inevitably cools off.

Both of these take a lot of practice. Even if you’re not betting, watch the lines while you’re watching a game. See how they react to in-game situations. You’ll get to a point where not only can you approximate the line just by looking at time and score, but also see where it’s going. You might get to a point where you can turn on a game, see that teams are shooting colder than expected, and anticipate a line movement upward at the first signs of them regressing back to the mean. But, remember, each sport reacts in different ways.

Putting it all together In-Game

If you’re betting on an exchange, you can buy into a position, watch it appreciate, and then sell it off-in game. If you’re betting traditionally, you can use it to find a middle, or to hedge a pregame position.

Wrap Up

Pregame, if you can get a line better than the closing line, that’s called closing line value (CLV). You’ll see many debates on CLV, but, over the long run, ROI’s and CLV are pretty well correlated, so anticipating line movements can help you maximize this.

Even if you never actually “win” a bet, anticipating line movements can help you get in and out of positions, maximizing your ROI.

One exercise you can do is to get out a notebook, write down where you think the line is heading, and see if you’re correct. Then, keep getting in those mental reps keeping in mind everything we went through.

If you have any questions, be sure to reply to this email! Best of luck!

ON THE BOARD
This Week in Sports Betting

⚾️ All week: Regular season is in full swing. The MLB regular season is continuing. We wrap up the week with a Rangers-Orioles series. The books should end up rooting for the Rangers.
🏀 Wednesday-Thursday: NBA Draft. The NBA Draft is over two days for the first time. Zaccharie Risacher of France (-280) is expected to go #1. Bronny James is the biggest liability to go #1.
🥋 Saturday: UFC 303. UFC 303 takes place in Las Vegas with a main event of Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka after the McGregor-Chandler fight was cancelled. Pereira is the -160 favorite. The books should end up rooting for Prochazka there, but, still a long way to go.
⚽️Saturday: Euro 2024 knockout rounds begin. The ongoing Euros reach their knockout rounds this weekend. The first match will be between Switzerland and Italy. It’s seemingly a 5-team race with only 5-teams below +1500. France are now currently the favorites at +400, followed by Germany at +450, England at +475, Spain at +475, and Portugal at +525. Of those five, sharps have been on Germany and Portugal. Books are rooting against England. Four of those five teams will be on the same side of the bracket.
🏏 Saturday: T20 Cricket World Cup Final. Four teams remain in contention to win the T20 Cricket World Cup in Barbados. The two midweek semifinals are between South Africa and Afghanistan, and India and England. India are the still the favorites at +125. However, they are the only liability left (slight one). The sharps are still alive with the England pick, which is now +350. The United States’ Cinderella run ended at the Super 8 stage this past week.

TAKING THE POINTS
3 Quick Tips to help you find your Edge

• This is one of the most up-in-the-air NBA Drafts. Use any information you might have to your advantage, and potentially look at plus money props.

• If you do bet the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award, do know that they changed the criteria to essentially mean they needed to have comeback from injury, and not from “sucking” or “being a backup.” The books are repricing that market now.

• We’re entering the dog days of summer in terms of sports betting. Use this time to build your models, analyses, and tactics for the new football season in a few months.

KEY NUMBERS
News from around the betting world

🇺🇸 59%. Donald Trump’s odds have upped to 59% on Polymarket, the highest he’s been trending this year, ahead of Thursday’s debate with Joe Biden. There is a 32% chance they will shake hands at said debate. Elsewhere around the world, Keir Starmer (96%) is holding steady to oust Rishi Sunak as the British PM.
🎰 $500K. In a story that might be Netflix special later on, a man is suing DraftKings for allegedly leaking his personal information to bettor Gadoon “Spanky” Kyrollos. The man then claimed he was threatened by a masked man and would be killed if he didn’t pay $500K to Kyrollos.
🎰 $357M. The US Supreme Court refused to hear a challenge to the monopoly the Seminole Tribe in Florida has over its monopoly of the state’s sports betting. In the last six months, the tribe has paid over $357M to the state. This could serve as a model for other states, such as California.

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