2025 March Madness Futures Report

Who do the betting markets say is going to be cutting down the nets in a few weeks?

March 19, 2025

THE STRAIGHT BET
2025 March Madness Futures Report

Below is the abridged March Madness Futures Report. The full report is in the Betting Market Digest.

Best of luck over the next few weeks!

-Anish

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NATIONAL TITLE

The professional bettors (sharps) are betting on:
🏀 Auburn +540
🏀 Illinois +6513
🏀 Maryland +5137
🏀 Purdue +8437
🏀 Texas A&M +9580

The highest liabilities are:
🏀 Connecticut +10997
🏀 Duke +315
🏀 Michigan State +2815
🏀 St. John’s +2395

The best outcomes are:
🏀 Tennessee +2421

Other good outcomes are:
🏀 Arizona +5979
🏀 Iowa State +3719
🏀 Maryland +5230
🏀 Purdue +8588
🏀 Texas A&M +9750
🏀 Texas Tech +3010
🏀 Wisconsin +5985
🏀 Every other team not listed

Borderline teams are:
🏀 Alabama +1953
🏀 Auburn +540
🏀 Florida +443
🏀 Gonzaga +4638
🏀 Houston +583
🏀 Kansas +7799
🏀 Kentucky +6446

The sharps are on a few teams, but a lot of those are longshots. Remember, it’s not that they might necessarily think that they will win, but that they have value. Take Maryland for example. By a lot of the metrics, they should be a Top 5 team, but their last four losses have all been buzzer beaters. So, the sharps see value there.

In terms of liabilities, I’d say the only four true liabilities are the four highest ones. I’d expect the borderline teams to end up being good results unless one of the longshots (Gonzaga, Kansas, or Kentucky) go on a run. In terms of good outcomes, I’ve only listed #4 seeds and above, but anything below that (from Michigan to Norfolk State) is a good outcome as well.

There’s also sharp action and liabilities for each of the regional markets, which are all found in the Betting Market Digest.